The thirty-second matchday brings Lazio a fixture that changes little, both in terms of the table and general interest.
On Monday at 20:45, Sarri's side visits the Artemio Franchi to face a Fiorentina still reeling from Thursday's heavy Conference League defeat to Daichi Kamada's Crystal Palace (alas, an old acquaintance of ours, but we'll talk about Japanese football in the coming days).
Form guide
Lazio come into this fixture in reasonably good shape overall; the (uninspiring) draw with Parma extended the unbeaten run to five (2 draws, 3 wins). The same cannot be said of the players' physical condition, given the numerous absentees that are decimating the Biancocelesti squad this week.
Not counting the usual long-term absentees Rovella and Provedel, Gila, Maldini, Dele Bashiru and Marusic have been added to the list, along with Zaccagni who seems on the road to recovery but not yet ready.
A similar situation for the Viola coached by Mr Vanoli, who have pulled clear of the relegation mire in the league but showed mental fragility in Europe born of a cursed season full of negative events (including the death of president Commisso).
Vanoli's side will be without Gudmundsson (a real bête noire for Lazio) and Fagioli (perhaps Fiorentina's most in-form player, scorer of the 82nd-minute goal that definitively lifted Fiorentina out of the relegation battle) through suspension. Moise Kean will also be unavailable through injury, while Parisi and Mandragora are doubts.
Approach and tactical key
Lazio seek consistency of results to boost morale and confidence in these two away fixtures leading up to the (currently) most important match of the year (the semi-final return leg in Bergamo on 22 April against Palladino's Atalanta), because if it's true that winning helps you win, Sarri's team is trying to build on results that resilience needed to cement their own convictions and their very faith in their own style of play.
A style that gives the Biancocelesti one of the best defences in the league, but which going forward struggles to find the necessary rhythm to get their central strikers scoring consistently.
The approach will be the usual one for Sarri; Vanoli will probably look for width, Sarri for verticality through building from the centre-forward out to the wide men. It will be vital for both teams to win the battles out wide: on one flank Isaksen vs Gosens, on the other Tavares and Noslin against Dodo and Harrison or Parisi.
The Biancocelesti must not lose their balance, in a match that will certainly open up in the second half, where both teams show more signs of opening up – the Viola because they almost always grow into the second half, Lazio because they always tend to "free themselves" a bit mentally and therefore manage to develop their play better. The variable, however, remains the wide battles; in my opinion Isaksen in particular will be the deciding factor. If the Danish winger is in form he can influence the match and swing it the Biancocelesti's way, but if he suffers against Gosens' physical strength he could have an anonymous game and thus become a problem for Sarri even in ball retention phases.
THE CHANGES AT LAZIO, HOW THEY CHANGE WITH DIA AND BASIC
Lazio will be profoundly different in their approach to the match, with Dia and Basic taking the places of the injured (or at least precautionarily rested) Maldini and Dele.
It will certainly be a more balanced Lazio, with a Basic returning to play as a box-to-box midfielder providing cover and running, leaving Taylor the creative and late-arriving duties, and with a Dia perhaps more inclined than Maldini towards verticality and attacking the space in behind. Another change that could be fundamental for Lazio's game is Noslin, tipped as the favourite by all the reporters who follow the Biancocelesti daily. He is the one who must dispel all the talk labelling him as "ineffective" as a starter but decisive as a "substitute" (3 goals, all from the bench).
