Matchday thirty arrives and for our Lazio it is time to raise the bar, perhaps bringing home the third consecutive win (something that has never happened this season).
Lazio travel to Bologna, where they will face a team in fine form — above all thanks to the important win in the UEFA Europa League derby against Roma (painful for us), but also on the back of a very positive recent run (3 wins in their last 5 league games, including 2 consecutive).
Bologna’s current condition is on the whole very good. They remain a team without singular peaks, but full of excellent individuals — it is no coincidence that their last 8 goals were scored by 8 different players, which makes them difficult to read, both with first-choice starters and with potential substitutes.
Lazio for their part arrive in good shape in terms of results, but in far worse shape health-wise, both because of the kilometres put in by the players and because of the many absences — the latest being Zaccagni, injured on Sunday against Milan.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
There have been two meetings this season:
the 1-1 draw in Rome with Isaksen’s goal, equalised two minutes later by Odgaard, and the win in Bologna after a penalty shootout in the Coppa Italia, which allowed the biancocelesti to reach the semi-final against Atalanta.
This year the matches between the two sides have always been enjoyable and balanced, full of moments of tension, with Bologna tending to keep the pace and pressure high, looking for a more collective approach with many runs between the lines.
Lazio for their part make defensive organisation their strong point, developing play mainly down the flanks, with Maldini very good at creating space and through-balls for the wide men’s transitions — Isaksen above all.
COMPARING THE MEN OF THE MOMENT: ISAKSEN VS ROWE
Isaksen
The extra element in this recent Lazio (far less so in previous months) is certainly Gustav Isaksen, scorer of the winning goal against Milan, and a thorn in the side of the entire Milan defence in the late Sunday evening match in round twenty-nine.
OFFENSIVE OUTPUT
Despite this, the numbers are not exactly top-level for his category: this season Isaksen has scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist,
- npxG: 0.36 per 90′ – 92nd percentile in Serie A
- xA: 0.12 per 90′
Volume and Threat
- 2.63 shots / 90′
- 36.8% shooting accuracy
- 0.28 / 90′
Isaksen has again shown this year that he is a winger naturally suited to one-on-one situations, very good at beating a man with the ball at his feet, but far less effective in the final action — whether goal or assist — where he is much less clinical compared to his ability in transitions from defence to attack.
Impact on Play
- 1 key pass per game
- 41 progressive carries (good ball-carrying)
- Expected Threat (xT): 198 – good ability to generate danger
In conclusion, Isaksen is a modern winger: high xG but without the goal-scoring instinct needed to be among the best in Serie A in his role.
Rowe
The absolute protagonist in the Europa League round of sixteen with the goal that opened the scoring last night and the author of an impressive display that put Gasperini’s defence under pressure — including the assist for Santiago Castro’s goal — the English under-21 left winger has this season made 33 appearances, scoring 5 goals and providing 4 assists across all competitions.
Starting quietly with some difficulties (scoring his first league goal on 8 March against Verona), he now seems to have added quantity and quality to his performances, with yesterday’s match being his absolute best performance of the season.
Average Offensive Stats This Season
- xG per 90′ seasonal: 0.23
- xA per 90′ seasonal: 0.11
- Successful dribbles per 90′ %: 51.7
Comparison with Isaksen
- xG per 90′ seasonal: 0.26
- xA per 90′ seasonal: 0.05
- Successful dribbles per 90′ %: 39.3
Slightly better numbers for the Bologna winger, though he has fewer minutes and fewer starts.
Average Defensive Stats This Season
Isaksen
- Tackles per 90′: 0.97
- Interceptions per 90′: 0.49
- xG conceded on pitch per 90′: 1.42
Rowe
- Tackles per 90′: 1.48
- Interceptions per 90′: 0.41
- xG conceded on pitch per 90′: 1.23
Two players essentially similar in their defensive approach, though Isaksen visually covers better (probably also more disciplined under Sarri).
LIKELY LINE-UPS AND TACTICAL APPROACH
Bologna (4-2-3-1)
Ravaglia; Zortea, Vitik, Lucumi, Miranda; Sohm, Freuler; Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi; Dallinga
Lazio (4-3-3)
Motta; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares; Dele-Bashiru, Patric, Taylor; Isaksen, Maldini, Pedro
Expected Tactical Approach
Bologna, galvanised by their European qualification, will certainly try to play their game — building from the back but quickly going vertical, constantly finding many men between the lines (a characteristic evident in the match against Roma, with Castro often found in the midfield line) and the wide men always heavily involved, both in depth and in build-up play.
They are a team that, by raising the pace and creating many situations, tries to draw you into their game — something that does not necessarily work against Sarri’s defensive organisation and his Lazio.
Lazio will certainly exploit their mid-block (not constantly ultra-high pressing, but positional defence — the typical hallmark of Sarri’s tactics) and the search for quick transitions thanks to the high wide men and their false nine, ready to also trigger the power and pace of Dele-Bashiru.
The athletic aspect will also be important: Bologna will likely rotate heavily to compensate for the cup exertions, while Lazio will respond with the classic “typical week” preparation, Mau style.
PERSONAL ANALYSIS
I believe the two key positions in the match will be Patric for Lazio and the striker for Bologna. Castro created numerical superiority multiple times against Roma, giving Bologna an offensive advantage in Gasperini’s half. Patric will be fundamental in managing the moments of the match: if he can shake off the press and manage possession in a balanced way, Lazio could find the patterns needed to go quickly vertical, exploiting the gaps created by Bologna’s very aggressive pressing.
All that remains is to wait for Sunday to find out how this promising match ends.
Enrico Volpini
